Hot runs feel safer than they are, and cold runs feel worse than they are. Recency bias is the habit of overweighing the last few results and ignoring the full sample. You beat it with rules, not vibes, and with metrics that describe streaks without lying.
What recency bias looks like in play
Recency bias is believing “I’m hot” or “I’m doomed” based on a tiny slice of outcomes. A few wins invite bigger stakes; a few losses invite chasing or quitting early. Neither reaction reflects true edge or risk.
Short samples are noisy. Slots cluster features, sportsbooks swing on late news, and poker sessions hinge on a handful of all-ins. Your system must translate streaks into numbers you can compare week to week, not feelings moment to moment.
Core terms in plain English
Hit rate is the share of bets or spins that pay anything. ROI is profit divided by amount risked over a period. Drawdown is the peak-to-trough drop in units. Together they describe frequency, efficiency, and pain.
Variance is the natural bounce around your average. Recency bias treats variance as truth. Your job is to measure variance and keep decisions steady through it.
A streak scoring system you can copy
Judge streaks with a small dashboard, not memory. Use the same windows every time—last 100 spins, 20 bets, or 10 sessions—so your comparisons are apples to apples. One week’s method becomes next week’s baseline.
Keep it minimal. Four columns cover most needs: ROI, max drawdown, hit rate, and quality. “Quality” should be an objective note like average feature value, CLV vs. closing line, or table selection grade.
Tiny reference table
| Window | ROI (units) | Max DD | Hit Rate | Quality Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 100 spins | +6 | 9 | 32% | Feature x̄ = 18× bet |
| Last 20 bets | –2 | 5 | 45% | CLV beat in 12/20 |
| Last 10 sessions | +8 | 7 | — | Soft pool 6/10, tilt flagged 1× |
How to use the score in decisions
If ROI is positive but drawdown is high, variance is masking true edge—keep stakes steady. If ROI is flat and CLV/quality is strong, patience beats tinkering. If ROI is poor and quality is poor, reduce volume or change games before raising stakes.
Never react to a single row. Require two consecutive windows to confirm a change. This simple lag stops you from re-sizing on blips and calling it “discipline.”
Stake sizing rules that resist streaks
Size in units, not dollars. Pick 100–200 units for volatile games and 50–100 for steadier play. Units absorb noise and keep you from chasing losses with larger bets.
Allow only small, scheduled adjustments. For example, change stake by ±10% after your weekly review—never mid-session. If two windows in a row show ROI < –5% with poor quality notes, step down a unit tier. If two windows show strong CLV or feature value with controlled drawdown, step up a tier.
Session guards that keep you honest
Use a pre-committed stop-loss and stop-win in units. Stopping on count or time also works: end after 500 spins, 2 features seen, or 3 poker hours. These caps interrupt tilt loops that recency bias feeds.
Log one behavior target before you start. Examples: “no off-angle parlays,” “no bonus-bet toggle,” or “fold river without blocker when pot > 20× unit.” Reviewing a single rule beats vague “play better” notes.
Audits, anti-tilt drills, and common traps
Run a five-minute audit after each session. Write two facts and one change: “Beat CLV but lost units; drawdown peaked at 8; remove bonus bet next time.” Facts punch holes in stories your brain tells after swings.
Beware “I’m due” thinking. Unless a game publishes must-drop thresholds, past misses don’t improve the next spin. Likewise, a heater doesn’t raise edge unless your quality metric moved too—like softer tables or consistent CLV.
Quick anti-bias list
- Compare windows, not isolated sessions.
- Require two windows to change stakes.
- Track quality (CLV, feature value, table grade) alongside ROI.
- Adjust only on schedule; never mid-session.
Over a month, these small habits turn streaks into data. You won’t kill variance, but you’ll stop it from steering your bankroll.