Baccarat looks simple: bet on Banker, Player, or Tie. Underneath, the math makes one side consistently stronger. Understanding the true edges helps you decide where to place bets and why casinos set commissions the way they do.
How the game resolves
Two hands are dealt—one for Banker, one for Player. Each starts with two cards, and a third card may be drawn by fixed rules. The hand closest to nine wins. Tens and face cards count as zero, aces as one, and only the last digit of the sum matters.
Players can’t change decisions; all draws are automatic. The only choice is which side to back. That makes baccarat easy to learn but entirely math-driven.
The actual odds
The Banker hand has a built-in edge because of drawing rules. It sometimes acts second, reacting to Player’s draw, which improves its odds. Casinos add a 5% commission on Banker wins to balance this advantage.
Here’s how the probabilities look on a standard eight-deck shoe:
Probability snapshot
- Banker win: ~45.9% (after commission, house edge ≈ 1.06%)
- Player win: ~44.6% (house edge ≈ 1.24%)
- Tie: ~9.5% (house edge ≈ 14.4%)
Without commission, Banker would be the clear best option. With it, the two main bets are closer—but Banker still edges out Player in long-run efficiency.
At-a-glance table
| Bet | Win Rate | House Edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.9% | ~1.06% | Best long-term option |
| Player | 44.6% | ~1.24% | Slightly weaker |
| Tie | 9.5% | ~14.4% | Worst value, high allure |
Why the edge matters for casual play
The difference between Banker and Player is small in short sessions, but over hundreds of bets, it adds up. Choosing Banker every time minimizes expected loss. Choosing Player adds a little extra cost for the same experience.
Tie bets may look tempting with their 8:1 payout, but the true odds are closer to 9.5:1. That gap creates a steep house edge. Unless you enjoy variance for its own sake, Ties are poor bankroll management.
Common pitfalls
- Believing in streaks: past results don’t change probabilities.
- Ignoring commission: always factor the 5% deduction into wins.
- Mixing bets “for balance”: swapping between Banker and Player doesn’t change long-run math.
Practical bankroll rules
If you want to stretch playtime, stick to Banker. Track commission, as multiple small wins can shrink more than you expect. Some casinos offer reduced commission tables (like 4% or “Banker wins on 6 push”), but always check the fine print.
Decide unit size first. A bankroll split into 100–200 units gives cushion against variance. Use flat betting; progression systems don’t change the edge, they just change risk of ruin.
Quick checklist
- Favor Banker for lowest edge.
- Avoid Ties unless variance is the goal.
- Set units and stick with flat stakes.
- Treat commission as part of cost per spin.
The bottom line
Baccarat is one of the few table games where math is transparent. The house edge is low, but only if you choose the right side. Banker beats Player in efficiency, even after commission. Tie drains bankrolls with little long-term value.