Category: Betting Tips

Hot runs feel safer than they are, and cold runs feel worse than they are. Recency bias is the habit of overweighing the last few results and ignoring the full sample. You beat it with rules, not vibes, and with metrics that describe streaks without lying. What recency bias looks like in play Recency bias… Continue reading Beating Recency Bias: Systems to Judge Streaks

Underdogs are where value hides, but only at the right price. Narratives sell “fight” and “momentum”; edges come from numbers. Your job is to buy probability cheaply, not to cheer the long shot. What “price discipline” really means Price discipline is betting only when the odds you get beat the true chance you believe. It’s… Continue reading Underdog Strategy: Price Discipline Over Hype